Political Bets

Winners, losers, and the odds

At the beginning of this political season I maxed out bets that Biden would not win the 2024 US presidential election and that he would not win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination, that Kamala Harris would be on the 2024 Democratic ticket and that she would win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination. None of those four bets have resolved yet, but they’re trading as of they’re winners.

Once Biden withdrew, I turned to the veepstakes with bets against both Cooper and Beshear for VP (both okay picks but quite parochial to their states and both states likely to go Republican anyway) and a bet that Shapiro would be the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee. This is both my expectation and my preference. Of my current bets, this one remains actionable. The price has more than doubled since I maxed it out but it is still a good bet (yes costs $0.69 on Predict It).

I have a new bet that I’m bidding on but the market is still a few cents away. I’m not ready to disclose it until I’ve maxed it out, but it has an embedded freeroll that I love. Read all the fine print and think through the logic of the wording on each bet to find a few valuable arbitrages here and there (not for highly likely events, but ones that you can profit from risklessly if they occur). These are fun and lucrative, but suffer from such a small sample size that they don’t always work.